Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdf5…e344 other 677 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,904 (-9%) realized −$1,852 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%172W / 456L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day96.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$979
14 days−$1,215
30 days−$2,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$660
world 21% −$187
crypto 14% −$274
finance 11% −$248
politics 10% −$131
tech 6% −$90
sports 5% −$90
weather 4% −$137
culture 2% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 -39.3% -45.1% 2% 1% -22.9%
≤30d 491 -29.4% -36.1% 7% 1% -21.7%
≤90d 628 -21.6% -29.1% 27% 5% -18.9%
all 628 -21.6% -29.1% 27% 5% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 5% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 2% -26.7%
15% -42.0% 1% -33.8%
20% -47.7% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,852
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses172 / 456
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions48
Markets (closed)628 / 677
History coverage33d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day96.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 85¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? No 92¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? No 91¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 91¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No 91¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? No 94¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 80¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 92¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by 10–20%? Yes 2¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1451%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 93¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? No 92¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 15 $146 −$3 -2%
Will Raphinha be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Justin Kluivert be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Will there be 6+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 15 $1 $0 -32%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Yuito Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 15 $64 −$48 -75%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 15 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -83%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 15 $84 −$12 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? Jun 14 $99 −$6 -6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $93 −$3 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $49 $0 -1%
Will jL appear as an analyst at an S-Tier CS tournament in 2026? Jun 14 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -20%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 14 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Matt Freese win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 14 $46 −$10 -22%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Jun 14 $0 $0 -65%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 14 $90 −$6 -7%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -1%
Will there be 5+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $143 −$11 -8%
Will Tijjani Reijnders be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Jorrel Hato be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands's Starting 11 include a player not listed above? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -29%
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $46 $0 -1%
Will Brazil be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 13 $3 −$2 -52%
Will voter turnout be 54-57% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 13 $1 $0 -74%
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? Jun 13 $46 −$5 -11%
Will Paraguay concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 13 $48 −$5 -10%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -24%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 13 $118 −$2 -1%
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Vanderlan Cardoso win the Governor of Goiás election? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $42 $0 +1%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 13 $49 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 24m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 27m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 88¢ $15 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 90¢ $18 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 91¢ $11 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL No 89¢ $1 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL No 91¢ $9 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 91¢ $10 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 88¢ $18 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 88¢ $26 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $46 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL No 91¢ $14 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL No 91¢ $5 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 91¢ $19 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.02 · official $0.01 · 3500 history records