Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdf9…6370 sports 638 markets active 3h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$600 (+6%) realized +$600 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%221W / 417L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$11
14 days−$77
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$144
other 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -19.1% -26.8% 31% 31% -12.5%
≤30d 59 +9.7% -0.8% 32% 32% +4.4%
≤90d 260 -11.4% -19.9% 30% 29% -12.8%
all 638 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 34% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 34% -8.6%
10% -20.3% 34% -17.4%
15% -28.0% 33% -25.4%
20% -35.0% 31% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$600
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses221 / 417
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)638 / 638
History coverage188d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 638 Trades
no open positions (385 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$6 -52%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -39%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -92%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$37 +303%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$34 +167%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$21 +108%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$17 +170%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Kirkov/Miedler vs Demoliner/Melo Jun 11 $12 −$3 -22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $42 +$32 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $58 +$40 +69%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$4 +41%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $20 +$14 +72%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $24 −$8 -32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $49 −$10 -20%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $45 −$10 -22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $34 −$9 -27%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $44 −$11 -25%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $53 +$17 +32%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $10 +$125 +1288%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $14 −$14 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $49 −$24 -48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $29 −$28 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 +$13 +64%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $21 +$131 +638%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $31 −$10 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $11 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 98¢ $54 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 10¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 9¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1213 history records