Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CD 0xcdfb…1d8f other 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,998 (-2%) realized −$2,000 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$983per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$27
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,682
politics 36% −$50
sports 10% −$290
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
world 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 119 -3.8% -12.9% 18% 11% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 11% -11.1%
10% -21.3% 11% -19.6%
15% -28.9% 9% -27.4%
20% -35.8% 8% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,281) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$25 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$694
Realized−$2,000
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage133d
Avg bet$983
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $692 $694 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $2,471 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $3,270 −$4 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,411 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,668 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4,309 −$6 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,836 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,023 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,985 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,096 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 03 $405 +$1 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,221 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,264 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 19 $542 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,980 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,828 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,170 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $1,881 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,386 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,176 −$3 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $531 8m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $532 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $538 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $539 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $532 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $533 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $535 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $536 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $533 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $534 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $692 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,221 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,223 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,226 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,227 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,226 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,228 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,230 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,231 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,249 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,251 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,086 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,086 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,243 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,244 22d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $693.53 · official $693.53 (match) · 433 history records