Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CD 0xcdfd…6b71 crypto 354 markets active 20h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,417 (+3%) realized +$937 · open +$480
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate84%238W / 44L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$1,348
other 16% +$378
finance 6% +$51
sports 5% +$57
politics 4% −$468
world 4% +$91
economics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤30d 8 +3.3% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤90d 27 +7.3% -2.9% 96% 22% -5.7%
all 282 +4.6% -5.3% 84% 24% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 24% -7.4%
10% -14.4% 9% -16.2%
15% -22.7% 6% -24.3%
20% -30.2% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$36 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$4,209
Realized+$937
Unrealized+$480
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses238 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions72
Markets (closed)282 / 354
History coverage615d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $177 $200 +$23 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 95¢ $149 $189 +$40 (+27%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $176 $188 +$12 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $155 $174 +$19 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $173 $174 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 94¢ $91 $160 +$69 (+77%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 98¢ $118 $139 +$21 (+18%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $123 $138 +$15 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 94¢ $72 $101 +$30 (+41%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 98¢ $79 $98 +$19 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 97¢ $77 $97 +$20 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 96¢ $70 $96 +$26 (+37%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 92¢ $68 $92 +$24 (+36%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $83 $90 +$8 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 90¢ $29 $90 +$61 (+210%)
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 82¢ $56 $82 +$26 (+47%)
Will BNB reach $1300 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $72 $76 +$4 (+6%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $68 $71 +$2 (+3%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 79¢ 100¢ $39 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $190 +$10 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $293 +$7 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $120 +$2 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 09 $784 +$16 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 22 $8 +$7 +89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 22 $32 −$12 -37%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 22 $40 +$5 +14%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 22 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 22 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 22 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 22 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Apr 22 $96 +$4 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 22 $100 +$11 +11%
Megaquake by March 31? Apr 22 $136 +$15 +11%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 22 $160 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 22 $172 +$8 +5%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 22 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 22 $253 +$7 +3%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 30 $49 +$1 +3%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026? Mar 25 $49 +$6 +11%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? Mar 25 $102 +$13 +12%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Mar 25 $138 +$3 +2%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $241 −$21 -9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Mar 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 24 $196 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? Mar 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? Mar 24 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 20? Mar 24 $26 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Mar 24 $49 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 24 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? Mar 24 $226 +$3 +2%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 17 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? Mar 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13? Mar 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13? Mar 15 $107 +$8 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 99¢ $18 20h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $8 20h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 90¢ $18 20h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 90¢ $5 20h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $19 20h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $8 20h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 21h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 81¢ $8 21h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $18 21h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 21h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 94¢ $9 21h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 93¢ $19 21h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $7 21h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 71¢ $7 21h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 77¢ $16 21h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 86¢ $17 21h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 87¢ $17 21h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $28 21h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $12 21h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 23h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 23h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $12 24h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $22 24h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $9 24h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $7 25h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 91¢ $18 25h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $12 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $22 25h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $12 25h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,209.07 · official $4,209.07 (match) · 1039 history records