Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CD 0xcdff…24dd sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$625 (-30%) realized −$605 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 223d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$577
other 6% +$82
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +78.3% +61.3% 88% 88% +41.8%
≤30d 8 +78.3% +61.3% 88% 88% +41.8%
≤90d 8 +78.3% +61.3% 88% 88% +41.8%
all 9 +58.5% +43.4% 78% 78% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.4% 78% -30.4%
10% +29.6% 78% -37.0%
15% +17.1% 67% -43.1%
20% +5.6% 67% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$529 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$605
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage223d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Up 9¢ 3¢ $30 $10 −$20 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$18 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $294 +$216 +74%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $349 +$119 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $0 $0 +200%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $212 +$137 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $130 +$82 +64%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1,049 −$1,049 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $294 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $349 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $212 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $0 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $212 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $130 14h
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $350 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $700 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.53 · official $9.53 (match) · 22 history records