Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
CE 0xce00…7d1d sports 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9,035 (+21%) realized +$8,549 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%94W / 78L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$726est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,079
7 days+$3,487
14 days+$3,662
30 days+$6,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$8,331
other 10% +$119
crypto 1% +$196
culture 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +25.0% +13.1% 59% 59% +12.5%
≤30d 111 +8.6% -1.7% 51% 51% +8.6%
≤90d 172 +13.3% +2.5% 55% 54% +9.1%
all 172 +13.3% +2.5% 55% 54% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 54% +9.1%
10% -7.3% 54% -1.4%
15% -16.3% 53% -10.9%
20% -24.5% 46% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$170 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$2,021
Realized+$8,549
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses94 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$726
Open positions6
Markets (closed)172 / 178
History coverage64d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 88¢ $500 $835 +$335 (+67%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 38¢ 40¢ $250 $260 +$10 (+4%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $304 +$226 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 +$246 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 −$11 -7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $355 −$355 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $406 −$400 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $660 +$236 +36%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $282 −$183 -65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $866 +$1,311 +151%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $408 +$889 +218%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $962 −$962 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $610 +$640 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $355 +$256 +72%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $305 −$158 -52%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 13 $253 +$108 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $307 −$207 -67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$705 +69%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $254 +$227 +89%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $406 +$317 +78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $507 +$383 +76%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $202 +$91 +45%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $253 +$182 +72%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $253 −$253 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,624 −$1,624 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,143 +$1,359 +119%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $406 +$356 +88%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $253 +$161 +64%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $304 −$18 -6%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $203 +$180 +89%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $153 +$326 +213%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $355 +$307 +87%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $595 −$595 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $203 +$208 +102%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $303 +$122 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $204 +$335 +164%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $304 +$69 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $303 +$168 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $228 +$177 +77%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $867 +$1,605 +185%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 05 $304 −$304 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $831 +$683 +82%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $254 +$201 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 04 $457 −$264 -58%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $530 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $255 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $550 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $51 5h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 38¢ $255 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $304 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $304 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 46¢ $142 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $507 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $507 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $205 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $253 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $566 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $304 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $330 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $355 22h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,298 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $2,129 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $255 26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $253 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 98¢ $1,147 26h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 91¢ $611 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $147 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $305 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 41¢ $104 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $102 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,020.84 · official $2,020.84 (match) · 503 history records