Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CE 0xce00…7ce0 crypto 395 markets active 16d ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$875 (-1%) realized −$875 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%167W / 228L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$597est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$5,204
sports 37% −$5,696
other 7% −$2,851
finance 0% −$144
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 42 -32.8% -39.2% 29% 29% -52.0%
≤90d 280 -5.3% -14.4% 44% 42% -11.6%
all 395 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 41% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 41% -12.5%
10% -24.5% 39% -20.9%
15% -31.8% 38% -28.5%
20% -38.5% 35% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$233 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$875
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses167 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$597
Open positions0
Markets (closed)395 / 395
History coverage98d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 395 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 01 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $338 −$338 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $518 −$518 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $341 −$341 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $256 −$256 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $550 −$528 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,682 −$2,612 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 01 $105 +$228 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $405 +$87 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $828 −$800 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $323 −$320 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $313 +$538 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $202 +$319 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6PM ET May 31 $722 +$552 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 31 $105 +$307 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $330 +$675 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $313 +$493 +157%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 31 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 31 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $327 −$327 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 31 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 31 $569 −$569 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $211 −$211 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 31 $378 −$378 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 31 $460 −$460 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 31 $663 −$663 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 31 $1,038 −$1,038 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 31 $1,443 −$1,443 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 31 $2,346 −$2,346 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $1,428 +$2,958 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $506 +$577 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8AM ET May 28 $824 +$583 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $615 +$338 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 28 $420 +$940 +224%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 28 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $406 −$406 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,176 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,507 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1222 history records