Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce01…303a crypto 1507 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+5%) realized +$243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%899W / 608L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$15
14 days−$14
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +1.5% -8.2% 57% 57% -6.6%
≤30d 524 +0.7% -8.9% 58% 58% -8.2%
≤90d 1507 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 58% -10.3%
all 1507 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 58% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 58% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 55% -18.9%
15% -27.1% 52% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 45% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses899 / 608
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1507 / 1507
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1507 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +126%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +156%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +63%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +53%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +69%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +53%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +116%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records