Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
CE 0xce07…5c3c weather 539 markets active 11h ago coverage 81d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,347 (+17%) realized +$3,347 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%320W / 219L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$381
14 days+$897
30 days+$1,940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,909
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +55.5% +40.7% 67% 55% +7.6%
≤30d 259 +58.6% +43.5% 64% 55% +5.3%
≤90d 539 +41.8% +28.3% 59% 52% +5.0%
all 539 +41.8% +28.3% 59% 52% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.3% 52% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here +16.0% 39% -5.0%
15% +4.8% 29% -14.2%
20% -5.5% 25% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3,347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses320 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)539 / 539
History coverage81d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 539 Trades
no open positions (182 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$10 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$25 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$9 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 +$25 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$9 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $77 +$15 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$46 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$18 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $163 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$25 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$12 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$63 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$25 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$28 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$15 +280%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$31 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$15 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $34 +$22 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $76 −$24 -31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $66 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $58 −$57 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$30 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$29 +419%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$4 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$16 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $34 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 79¢ $24 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 43¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL No 19¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL No 32¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL No 69¢ $9 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 54¢ $26 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $22 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 48¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $133 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $58 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.14 · official $0.00 · 2654 history records