Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce0a…c836
crypto · 177 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,892 -57%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,889 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$11,889
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses77 / 572
Open positions1
Markets (closed)649 / 177
History coverage4d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day971.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 649 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,771
7 days−$11,889
14 days−$11,889
30 days−$11,889
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 76¢ 96¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 15¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$26 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$37 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$26 -168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$5 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$20 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$25 -139%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$32 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$38 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$27 -168%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$32 -235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$61 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$29 -155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$353
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-75.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 649 -72.7% -75.3% 12% 9% -38.6%
≤30d 649 -72.7% -75.3% 12% 9% -38.6%
≤90d 649 -72.7% -75.3% 12% 9% -38.6%
all 649 -72.7% -75.3% 12% 9% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover971.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -75.3% 9% -38.6%
10% ← realistic here -77.7% 6% -44.5%
15% -79.8% 4% -49.9%
20% -81.8% 3% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.81 (match) · 3500 history records