Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CE 0xce0b…325f other 17 markets active 5d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-5%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$20
crypto 19% +$11
tech 15% +$2
culture 8% $0
politics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -90.4% -91.3% 0% 0% -86.9%
≤90d 5 -48.2% -53.1% 40% 40% -48.1%
all 12 -16.4% -24.4% 67% 50% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 50% -15.8%
10% -31.6% 25% -23.9%
15% -38.2% 8% -31.2%
20% -44.3% 8% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage119d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 28 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026? Mar 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 17 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Mar 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 19d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 76d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 85d
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $6 88d
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 103d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 103d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa SELL Yes 76¢ $10 107d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 80¢ $10 107d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 115d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 78¢ $10 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 118d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 75¢ $10 118d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 123d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 48¢ $5 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.00 · official $31.00 (match) · 27 history records