Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce0b…6e40 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$2
other 9% +$1
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 35 +0.4% -9.2% 49% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage469d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $41 +$2 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $45 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $133 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $46 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $14 $0 +3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $15 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 10 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $41 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $2 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $43 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $43 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $41 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $19 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $27 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $14 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $41 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $26 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $41 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $11 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $13 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.19 · official $1.19 (match) · 121 history records