Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce0c…5bb3 sports 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$117 (-8%) realized −$120 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%50W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$13
14 days−$96
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 44% −$62
crypto 4% −$49
world 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -9.2% -17.9% 54% 52% -7.9%
≤30d 111 -22.3% -29.7% 45% 44% -20.1%
≤90d 111 -22.3% -29.7% 45% 44% -20.1%
all 111 -22.3% -29.7% 45% 44% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 44% -20.1%
10% -36.4% 41% -27.8%
15% -42.6% 34% -34.8%
20% -48.2% 28% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses50 / 61
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)111 / 117
History coverage14d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 92¢ 94¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 45¢ 57¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $10 +$3 +30%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $10 +$4 +39%
Jonathan David: 2+ shots on target Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$17 +85%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $10 +$4 +35%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $10 +$15 +144%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 +$18 +171%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Toulouse win? Jun 28 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 26 $10 +$6 +61%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +75%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 +$7 +69%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$9 +88%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $10 +$14 +138%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$5 +51%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +81%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$31 +150%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $7 +$5 +64%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +45%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +33%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 23 $65 +$71 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 94¢ $5 3m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $10 56m
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $10 3h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 12h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 25h
Jonathan David: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 43¢ $10 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 25h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 31h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 73¢ $10 31h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $10 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 47h
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.98 · official $127.99 (match) · 247 history records