Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce0d…ca2c sports 46 markets active 2d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,307 (-49%) realized −$9,307 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,622
7 days−$1,102
14 days−$5,781
30 days−$9,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$4,052
crypto 25% −$4,679
other 4% −$836
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -51.6% -56.2% 25% 25% -28.6%
≤30d 18 -56.4% -60.5% 22% 22% -59.7%
≤90d 46 -39.6% -45.4% 37% 24% -55.6%
all 46 -39.6% -45.4% 37% 24% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 24% -55.6%
10% -50.6% 24% -59.8%
15% -55.4% 22% -63.7%
20% -59.8% 20% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$508) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -43% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$478 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage74d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 13 $485 −$472 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 13 $1,162 −$1,150 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 13 $658 −$650 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 13 $504 −$500 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $1,116 +$960 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,679 −$4,679 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $508 +$492 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 30 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 28 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 28 $837 −$836 -100%
James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 May 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5 May 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $508 −$508 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $1,117 +$1,128 +101%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5 Apr 06 $17 +$8 +49%
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 6.5 Apr 06 $34 +$2 +5%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5 Apr 06 $50 +$2 +5%
Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5 Apr 06 $53 +$3 +5%
Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 Apr 06 $101 +$6 +6%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Apr 06 $122 +$9 +7%
Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Apr 06 $142 +$40 +28%
Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Apr 06 $182 +$12 +7%
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 22.5 Apr 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5 Apr 05 $260 −$260 -100%
Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 Apr 05 $141 −$141 -100%
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 12.5 Apr 05 $117 −$117 -100%
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 6.5 Apr 05 $82 −$82 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Myles Turner: Points O/U 10.5 Apr 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Nick Richards: Points O/U 9.5 Apr 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 7.5 Apr 02 $252 +$394 +156%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5 Apr 01 $153 −$153 -100%
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5 Apr 01 $33 +$31 +93%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Apr 01 $38 +$38 +101%
Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5 Apr 01 $43 +$57 +133%
Jalen Green: Points O/U 21.5 Apr 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 219.5 Apr 01 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) BUY Spurs 6¢ $0 45h
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) BUY Spurs 6¢ $485 45h
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Spurs 11¢ $507 46h
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Spurs 11¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) BUY Spurs 6¢ $300 2d
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Spurs 11¢ $31 2d
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Spurs 11¢ $11 2d
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) BUY Spurs 13¢ $16 2d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Spurs 13¢ $324 2d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Spurs 13¢ $334 2d
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Spurs 12¢ $136 2d
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Spurs 12¢ $476 2d
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) BUY Spurs 10¢ $0 2d
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) BUY Spurs 10¢ $0 2d
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) BUY Spurs 10¢ $0 2d
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) BUY Spurs 10¢ $147 2d
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) BUY Spurs 10¢ $356 2d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $101 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 7d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $1,014 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4,679 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline BUY Thunder 57¢ $1,013 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $1,519 15d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 51¢ $1,015 17d
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY Yes 5¢ $38 17d
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 18d
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 18d
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18d
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records