Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce0e…f9c4 sports 13 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-15%) realized −$8 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$8
tech 21% +$6
other 16% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -42.1% -47.6% 29% 29% -69.4%
≤30d 7 -42.1% -47.6% 29% 29% -69.4%
≤90d 7 -42.1% -47.6% 29% 29% -69.4%
all 7 -42.1% -47.6% 29% 29% -69.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.6% 29% -69.4%
10% -52.6% 29% -72.3%
15% -57.2% 29% -75.0%
20% -61.4% 29% -77.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 3¢ 18¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+559%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 12¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+126%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 32¢ 33¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.48 · official $12.46 (match) · 21 history records