Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce0e…f15c crypto 419 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1813 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$2,061 (+1%) realized +$1,296 · open +$765
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%50W / 381L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$602per market
Trades / day1812.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$719
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1813 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+68.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 431 +85.9% +68.2% 12% 6% -9.6%
≤30d 431 +85.9% +68.2% 12% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 431 +85.9% +68.2% 12% 6% -9.6%
all 431 +85.9% +68.2% 12% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1812.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +68.2% 6% -9.6%
10% +52.1% 5% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here +37.4% 5% -26.1%
20% +23.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +58% → late +114% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,142
Realized+$1,296
Unrealized+$765
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses50 / 381
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)431 / 419
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$602
Trades / day1812.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 23¢ 50¢ $137 $303 +$167 (+122%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $153 $303 +$150 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $152 $300 +$149 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $153 $297 +$144 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 24¢ 50¢ $115 $244 +$129 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $47 $93 +$46 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$7 +2921%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$6 +2704%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$6 +2584%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $87 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $123 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$6 +2672%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$8 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $110 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $107 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$6 +2826%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $77 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $71 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $135 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $146 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $147 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $606 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $601 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $606 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $606 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $606 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $606 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $606 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $600 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,141.69 · official $1,978.76 · 3500 history records