Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xce10…8261 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,725 (+56%) realized +$1,718 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$522
other 26% +$2,247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.2% -1.2% 33% 33% +47.1%
≤30d 6 +9.2% -1.2% 33% 33% +47.1%
≤90d 6 +9.2% -1.2% 33% 33% +47.1%
all 6 +9.2% -1.2% 33% 33% +47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 33% +47.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 33% +33.0%
15% -19.3% 33% +20.2%
20% -27.2% 33% +8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,572 vs −$356 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$1,718
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 28¢ 28¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $107 −$99 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $527 −$527 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $526 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $522 +$897 +172%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $796 +$2,247 +282%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $44 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $63 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 26¢ $796 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.12 · official $266.38 · 28 history records