Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce14…e38f politics 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,467 (+8%) realized +$3,486 · open −$1,019
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,004per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11,415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$2,058
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 19 +2.8% -7.0% 37% 16% +8.8%
all 19 +2.8% -7.0% 37% 16% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 16% +8.8%
10% -15.9% 16% -1.6%
15% -24.0% 16% -11.1%
20% -31.5% 16% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,043) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$939 vs −$291 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$11,415
Realized+$3,486
Unrealized−$1,019
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)19 / 29
History coverage101d
Avg bet$1,004
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $1,080 −$1,043 -97%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,497 −$425 -28%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $2,268 +$48 +2%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Apr 29 $764 −$373 -49%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $568 +$9 +2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $3,407 +$2,376 +70%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $669 +$3,761 +562%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $90 −$20 -22%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $451 −$102 -23%
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Apr 26 $21 −$18 -83%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $12 −$10 -81%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Apr 26 $133 −$101 -76%
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Apr 25 $233 −$41 -18%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Apr 24 $143 −$64 -45%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 24 $446 +$20 +4%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $931 +$12 +1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $2,052 −$1,273 -62%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $30 −$25 -83%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Apr 10 $427 +$349 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes $89 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $87 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes $188 35h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $145 35h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $43 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $136 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $637 4d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 12¢ $110 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 12¢ $822 30d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $762 30d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $170 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 13¢ $111 30d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $139 30d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $57 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 39d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $170 39d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $86 39d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $94 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $342 39d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $6 46d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $14 46d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 46d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 46d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $19 46d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $27 46d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,414.80 · official $11,418.63 (match) · 491 history records