Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce17…1afd other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,935 (-1%) realized −$1,948 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,117per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$23
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$53
politics 33% −$69
sports 10% −$1,826
economics 4% −$12
world 2% +$6
culture 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 35 +1.6% -8.1% 11% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 89 -0.6% -10.0% 6% 2% -11.1%
all 159 +3.7% -6.2% 19% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 11% -10.5%
10% -15.2% 10% -19.1%
15% -23.4% 9% -26.9%
20% -30.9% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,632) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$22 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized−$1,948
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 161
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,117
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $390 $397 +$7 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 62¢ $63 $69 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,215 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,662 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $805 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $57 +$39 +67%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,391 −$3 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $71 +$66 +93%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,047 −$6 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $447 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $230 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $327 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $319 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $4,195 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $300 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,051 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,965 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $602 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,921 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $2,060 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 08 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $4,596 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $354 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $355 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $484 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $485 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $524 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $524 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $550 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $551 5d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $560 5d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $561 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $567 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $568 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $542 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $542 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $611 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $612 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $390 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $634 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $635 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $911 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $913 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,076 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $633 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.99 · official $465.99 (match) · 509 history records