Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce17…c3d0 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$33 (+15%) realized +$42 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$30
politics 18% $0
sports 16% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +78.1% +61.1% 50% 50% +28.7%
≤30d 6 +78.1% +61.1% 50% 50% +28.7%
≤90d 6 +78.1% +61.1% 50% 50% +28.7%
all 6 +78.1% +61.1% 50% 50% +28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.1% 50% +28.7%
10% +45.7% 50% +16.4%
15% +31.6% 50% +5.1%
20% +18.7% 50% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 39¢ 38¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 6¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 43¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $11 +$19 +180%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $31 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 75¢ $30 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Cabo Verde w BUY 22¢ $5 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 7¢ $10 5h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 15h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $36 3d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 36¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 26¢ $11 3d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 25¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 27¢ $9 4d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.50 · official $114.50 · 18 history records