Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce1a…eaab other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$25
politics 25% −$15
sports 20% −$13
crypto 10% −$13
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 3% −$8
culture 2% −$2
finance 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 64 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 113 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
all 134 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 119
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage102d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $456 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $156 −$2 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $365 −$2 -0%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $50 $0 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $114 +$1 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $62 −$3 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $56 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $288 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $475 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $89 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $76 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 04 $47 +$4 +8%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $29 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $107 −$6 -5%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $459 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $62 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $62 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $62 8h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $56 8h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $68 14h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $68 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $45 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 27h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $2 27h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $2 32h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $23 33h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $24 40h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $54 40h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $54 46h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $56 47h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $56 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $42 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $65 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $65 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $66 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 3d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.52 · official $61.52 (match) · 501 history records