Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce1c…74f5 crypto 46 markets active 16h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-11%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$9
14 days−$25
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.7% -26.4% 43% 43% -29.4%
≤30d 46 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 43% -24.7%
≤90d 46 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 43% -24.7%
all 46 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 43% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 43% -24.7%
10% -28.5% 30% -31.9%
15% -35.4% 26% -38.5%
20% -41.7% 17% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage24d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $14 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 30 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 30 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $7 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 29 $7 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $7 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 26 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 26 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 26 $17 −$10 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 26 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 26 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 25 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 25 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 25 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 25 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 24 $6 +$9 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 24 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 24 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 23 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 23 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 23 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 23 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $12 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records