Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce1d…1b9b other 196 markets active 1d ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 203d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39,599 (+4%) realized −$23,440 · open +$63,039
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%98W / 83L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,490per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$190,290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$832
7 days+$832
14 days+$11,135
30 days+$14,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$8,488
world 32% +$36,623
politics 17% +$1,076
crypto 7% +$7,340
sports 1% +$4,174
economics 0% +$396
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.2% +16.0% 100% 100% +16.0%
≤30d 10 -9.3% -17.9% 70% 30% +2.2%
≤90d 75 -13.9% -22.1% 56% 25% -13.2%
all 181 -12.7% -21.0% 54% 36% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 36% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 25% -20.6%
15% -35.5% 15% -28.3%
20% -41.8% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$3,893) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,139 vs −$1,628 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$190,290
Realized−$23,440
Unrealized+$63,039
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses98 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions15
Markets (closed)181 / 196
History coverage203d ⚠
Avg bet$4,490
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $43,262 $61,969 +$18,707 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $27,132 $46,908 +$19,775 (+73%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $18,962 $35,552 +$16,590 (+87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $11,150 $16,974 +$5,825 (+52%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $11,264 $11,192 −$72 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $9,226 $9,329 +$103 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $2,400 $3,998 +$1,598 (+67%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $820 $1,999 +$1,179 (+144%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $1,610 $1,348 −$262 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $600 $370 −$230 (-38%)
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 94¢ 85¢ $227 $206 −$21 (-9%)
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? No 87¢ 83¢ $147 $140 −$8 (-5%)
Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 96¢ 77¢ $152 $122 −$30 (-20%)
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? No 92¢ 49¢ $212 $114 −$99 (-47%)
Hurupay FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 98¢ 81¢ $85 $71 −$15 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,950 +$832 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $48,093 +$10,303 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $14,730 +$270 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $5,417 +$83 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $3,403 +$217 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3,933 +$40 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $3,570 −$983 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $29,350 +$5,150 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $1,230 −$654 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $625 −$561 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $15,516 −$12,715 -82%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $5,185 +$41 +1%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 09 $28,001 +$431 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $36,668 +$14,332 +39%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? May 08 $1,078 +$396 +37%
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 04 $1,617 +$7 +0%
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? May 04 $21 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $79 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? May 04 $21 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $12,270 −$8,750 -71%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $15,946 +$4,705 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $3,505 +$213 +6%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $2,123 +$396 +19%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $802 +$327 +41%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $7,672 +$808 +10%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 26 $221 −$174 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $11,582 −$10,802 -93%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $936 +$221 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9,112 +$110 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 23 $873 +$227 +26%
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? Apr 19 $8,662 +$271 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $42,340 +$16,542 +39%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $13,195 −$13,038 -99%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $15,450 −$15,326 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 11 $808 −$203 -25%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $1,174 +$19 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $1,153 −$86 -7%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $28,897 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 08 $1,077 +$97 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $4,813 +$2,636 +55%
Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30? Apr 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by March 15? Apr 02 $2,948 −$2,908 -99%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Apr 02 $527 −$527 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Apr 02 $666 −$666 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Apr 02 $696 −$696 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Apr 02 $313 −$313 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $3,420 −$3,420 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $289 −$289 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $200 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $235 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $406 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $664 39h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $74 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $134 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $357 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $370 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $360 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $162 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $419 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $141 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $76 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $200 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $124 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $199 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,620 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $186 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $370 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $360 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190,289.77 · official $190,288.33 (match) · 3500 history records