Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce1d…6372 weather 1423 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-3%) realized −$209 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%846W / 573L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -3.5% -12.6% 78% 78% -13.1%
≤30d 190 +0.3% -9.2% 82% 82% -9.4%
≤90d 1419 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 58% -10.8%
all 1419 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 58% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 58% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 48% -19.3%
15% -26.3% 36% -27.1%
20% -33.6% 32% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses846 / 573
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1419 / 1423
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? No 85¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? No 85¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? No 85¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? No 85¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 40h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 44h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 45h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.03 · official $18.03 (match) · 3500 history records