Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xce1f…72c8 crypto 1673 markets active 6d ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$142 (+8%) realized +$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%216W / 896L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day82.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$667
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +109.5% +89.5% 100% 100% +89.5%
≤30d 1112 +32.5% +19.9% 19% 19% +23.1%
≤90d 1112 +32.5% +19.9% 19% 19% +23.1%
all 1112 +32.5% +19.9% 19% 19% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.9% 19% +23.1%
10% ← realistic here +8.4% 19% +11.3%
15% -2.1% 19% +0.5%
20% -11.7% 19% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses216 / 896
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1112 / 1673
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day82.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1112 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$24 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$19 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1891 history records