Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce20…36c1 weather 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate61%79W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$10
world 8% +$1
other 7% −$9
politics 2% +$1
culture 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 126 -37.6% -43.5% 61% 1% -9.8%
all 129 -37.4% -43.3% 61% 1% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 1% -10.8%
10% -48.8% 0% -19.3%
15% -53.7% 0% -27.1%
20% -58.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses79 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Apr 28 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 20? Apr 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? Apr 28 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 20? Apr 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 20? Apr 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 20? Apr 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 19 Apr 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19? Apr 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament Apr 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 19? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on Apri Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 17? Apr 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 17? Apr 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 16? Apr 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14? Apr 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 14? Apr 15 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 13? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on April 14? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on Apri Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 14? Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 13? Apr 14 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament SELL No 99¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 60d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $11 60d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $11 61d
Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament BUY No 96¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $11 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 19 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 332 history records