Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xce20…0b7b sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,386 (+1%) realized +$2,392 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%74W / 42L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$1,367per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$1,222est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$414
7 days−$414
14 days−$9,128
30 days+$1,234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$950
other 4% +$710
crypto 0% −$432
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.9% -33.8% 67% 33% -23.9%
≤30d 116 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 58% -8.8%
≤90d 116 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 58% -8.8%
all 116 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 58% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 58% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 41% -17.5%
15% -26.4% 28% -25.5%
20% -33.6% 22% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,810) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$524 vs −$894 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized+$2,392
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses74 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,367
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $609 −$609 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $1,001 +$24 +2%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $1,004 +$171 +17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $534 −$534 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $93 +$244 +262%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,578 −$3,578 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $241 +$51 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,540 −$601 -24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,503 −$1,503 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $913 −$913 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $802 +$86 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $416 −$416 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $845 −$845 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $908 +$376 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,869 +$351 +19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2,589 +$1,418 +55%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4,628 −$164 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,835 −$2,835 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,456 +$1,378 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $809 −$809 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $332 +$189 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $606 +$331 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,390 +$357 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,052 +$339 +32%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $607 +$346 +57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,801 +$23 +1%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $253 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $604 +$175 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $302 +$109 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5,840 +$54 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,235 +$844 +68%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,112 +$582 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,408 +$322 +23%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,210 +$435 +36%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,610 +$445 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3,013 +$472 +16%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $1,423 +$1,123 +79%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,153 +$444 +21%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $908 −$908 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,510 +$747 +30%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $510 −$398 -78%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $4,047 −$4,047 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $712 +$716 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $1,175 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 85¢ $1,004 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $1,024 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY OG 98¢ $1,001 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 51¢ $609 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 22¢ $8 9d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $534 10d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $337 10d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $93 10d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $291 10d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 82¢ $241 10d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $241 10d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 83¢ $201 10d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $72 10d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 94¢ $3,506 10d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1,939 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $1,503 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 90¢ $802 10d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $307 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1,284 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $2,219 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $665 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 90¢ $1,204 10d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $1,009 10d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 2¢ $31 11d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 1¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 83¢ $804 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $606 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $994.19 · official $994.19 (match) · 313 history records