Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xce20…c60a other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$11
politics 21% −$6
sports 6% −$25
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 6% -9.7%
all 105 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 6% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage91d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $841 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $242 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $384 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $410 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $405 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $201 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $200 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $420 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $395 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $204 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $405 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $410 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $406 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $382 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $416 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $417 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $593 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $641 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $388 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $38 6h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 23h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $87 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 24d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 25d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $91 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.31 · official $177.31 (match) · 312 history records