Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce22…aa4a other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$12 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
sports 21% +$1
other 18% $0
politics 15% −$4
tech 2% −$8
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 30% 10% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +6.5% -3.6% 38% 23% -8.9%
≤90d 26 +2.7% -7.1% 35% 12% -9.6%
all 78 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage466d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $126 $112 −$13 (-11%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $160 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $154 +$3 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $175 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $334 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $268 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $288 −$6 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $122 +$13 +11%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $83 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $157 −$8 -5%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $91 +$1 +1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $864 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $1,110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,110 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,008 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 10 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $1 −$1 -38%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $126 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $55 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $99 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $154 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $175 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $175 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $175 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $175 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 20¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 20¢ $42 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 20¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 21¢ $127 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $59 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $127 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $103 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $59 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $28 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $58 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.42 · official $109.06 · 290 history records