Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce24…6239 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28,787 (+25%) realized +$29,368 · open −$581
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%42W / 231L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$919per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$11,016
sports 8% −$7,540
other 4% +$1,378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -31.7% -38.2% 10% 9% -67.2%
≤30d 232 -22.5% -29.8% 14% 13% -59.9%
≤90d 232 -22.5% -29.8% 14% 13% -59.9%
all 273 -22.6% -30.0% 15% 15% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 15% -38.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 14% -44.0%
15% -42.8% 14% -49.4%
20% -48.4% 13% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$991 vs −$424 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,121
Realized+$29,368
Unrealized−$581
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses42 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions4
Markets (closed)273 / 127
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$919
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $659 $636 −$23 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $926 $420 −$506 (-55%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 30¢ 26¢ $75 $64 −$11 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $42 $1 −$41 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 233 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Jun 23 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? Jun 23 $297 −$267 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$17 -212%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $155 −$155 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Jun 23 $8 −$64 -803%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $467 −$339 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 15? Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 21? Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1PM ET Jun 23 $704 −$704 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 23 $410 −$410 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $48 −$53 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1PM ET Jun 23 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $59 −$56 -96%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$56 +159%
Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 18? Jun 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 23 $124 −$96 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $390 −$344 -88%
West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $408 −$408 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Jun 23 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1? Jun 23 $87 +$3,372 +3862%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $2,025 −$2,025 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 19? Jun 23 $3,658 +$9,872 +270%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Chelsea finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifie Jun 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 23 $211 −$211 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 23 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Jun 23 $702 −$702 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 23 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $288 −$288 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoff Jun 23 $181 −$181 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-07? Jun 23 $0 −$70 -318212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $222 −$222 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 17? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 9 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 1? Jun 23 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Celtic FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $175 −$175 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $153 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $132 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 12¢ $73 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 40m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 30¢ $75 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 27¢ $93 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 27¢ $43 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $124 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,120.85 · official $1,120.85 (match) · 3500 history records