Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce2b…08fa sports 1276 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 192d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,743 (-3%) realized −$15,520 · open −$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%662W / 743L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$1,555est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$3,757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 192d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$10,623
other 29% +$7,427
world 1% +$1,476
culture 0% +$254
tech 0% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -66.3% -69.5% 18% 18% -56.4%
≤30d 312 -47.1% -52.1% 28% 28% -40.2%
≤90d 647 -24.7% -31.9% 40% 39% -24.3%
all 1405 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 46% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 46% -15.0%
10% -28.0% 45% -23.1%
15% -35.0% 40% -30.5%
20% -41.3% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$272 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$3,757
Realized−$15,520
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses662 / 743
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,555
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1405 / 1276
History coverage192d ⚠
Avg bet$391
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $694 $817 +$124 (+18%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 74¢ $750 $745 −$5 (-1%)
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $492 $510 +$18 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
John Stones: 1+ shots Yes 41¢ 50¢ $190 $232 +$42 (+22%)
Reece James: 1+ shots Yes 63¢ 50¢ $250 $200 −$50 (-20%)
Declan Rice: 2+ shots Yes 43¢ 28¢ $300 $199 −$101 (-34%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Over 51¢ 50¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 39¢ 14¢ $507 $175 −$331 (-65%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 44¢ $130 $163 +$33 (+26%)
Will Kai Havertz score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 58¢ $88 $160 +$72 (+81%)
Declan Rice: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 16¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19? Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-28? Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup Day 2? Jun 17 $350 −$393 -112%
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win more than 41.5 regular season games in 2 Jun 17 $750 −$750 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-13? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Inter vs. Lazio: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 −$224 -47764%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 United Jun 17 $208 −$208 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-23? Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Spread: SF (-1.5) Jun 17 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 s Jun 17 $635 −$654 -103%
Will Genoa win on 2025-11-03? Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Newcastle vs. Fulham: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? Jun 17 $850 −$850 -100%
Will Lazio win on 2025-09-21? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
US Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Jaume Munar Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Will KRC Genk win on 2025-10-02? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $232 −$232 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win more than 46.5 regular season games in Jun 17 $679 −$684 -101%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-26? Jun 17 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Jun 17 $173 −$272 -157%
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-29? Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-18? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? Jun 17 $685 −$685 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? Jun 17 $340 −$340 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $435 −$435 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-13? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Manchester United vs. Everton: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $378 −$378 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-21? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $284 −$284 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-08-21? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 −$104 -129%
Clippers vs. Warriors Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Falcons vs. Panthers Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Azerba Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-06? Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-29? Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-13? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-30? Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-08-28? Jun 17 $236 −$272 -115%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-04? Jun 17 $70 −$148 -210%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-30? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-22? Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-08-24? Jun 17 $275 −$275 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $183 3m
John Stones: 1+ shots BUY Yes 41¢ $193 9m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $756 14m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $240 15m
Declan Rice: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $102 29m
Reece James: 1+ shots BUY Yes 63¢ $253 30m
Declan Rice: 2+ shots BUY Yes 43¢ $305 33m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $193 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $304 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $132 3h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $133 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $854 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $757 14h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 55¢ $334 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $636 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $304 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $756 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $959 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $755 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $677 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $930 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $375 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $507 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 39¢ $234 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 37¢ $222 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $405 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 21¢ $83 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $748 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $757 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,756.89 · official $3,670.50 · 3500 history records