Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xce2e…4257 crypto 363 markets active 2h ago coverage 699d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,936 (+2%) realized +$3,936 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%204W / 159L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$409est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 699d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$11,173
crypto 24% −$6,479
sports 16% −$1,386
finance 6% +$1,063
politics 3% −$3,344
culture 1% +$297
world 1% +$427
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +3.6% -6.3% 78% 72% +5.7%
≤30d 31 -11.7% -20.1% 58% 55% -23.4%
≤90d 353 -6.2% -15.2% 57% 47% -8.7%
all 363 -7.3% -16.2% 56% 46% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -8.7%
10% -24.2% 33% -17.5%
15% -31.5% 25% -25.4%
20% -38.2% 19% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$194 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,936
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses204 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$409
Open positions0
Markets (closed)363 / 363
History coverage699d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 363 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $152 +$86 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $106 +$34 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$11 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $343 +$187 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $331 +$208 +63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $265 +$36 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $117 −$115 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $202 +$65 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,929 +$130 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$43 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $381 +$362 +95%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$87 -86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,096 −$27 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,014 −$18 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,051 −$1,223 -60%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,992 +$357 +18%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $537 −$517 -96%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $1,186 −$1,088 -92%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $4,794 −$1,660 -35%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,021 +$349 +34%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $706 +$266 +38%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $644 −$636 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $971 +$29 +3%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $1,194 +$805 +67%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $107 +$23 +21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $112 +$378 +336%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $102 −$77 -75%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $105 +$195 +185%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $1,053 +$47 +4%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $195 −$93 -48%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $108 −$60 -56%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $422 +$846 +200%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $113 −$110 -97%
Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $103 +$317 +307%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $106 −$48 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $105 −$91 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $30 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 68¢ $121 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 89¢ $179 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $106 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $49 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $201 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $343 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 62¢ $101 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $230 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $12 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 47¢ $105 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $102 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 26¢ $101 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 28¢ $114 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $101 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 77¢ $101 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $406 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $501 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 70¢ $101 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 50¢ $152 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1658 history records