Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CE 0xce2f…b499 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$133 (+6%) realized +$189 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%24W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$215
other 19% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +4.5% -5.5% 40% 40% -4.3%
≤30d 60 +4.5% -5.5% 40% 40% -4.3%
≤90d 60 +4.5% -5.5% 40% 40% -4.3%
all 60 +4.5% -5.5% 40% 40% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 40% -4.3%
10% -14.5% 40% -13.5%
15% -22.8% 38% -21.8%
20% -30.4% 38% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$23 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$189
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses24 / 36
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage6d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 28¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 22¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-56%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 8¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$31 +151%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$46 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $31 +$38 +126%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 +$13 +624%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $112 +$113 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$71 +139%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $31 −$20 -67%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$4 -10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$71 +139%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$22 -43%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$8 -16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$64 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$4 -8%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$12 -12%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $10 +$16 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 −$51 -84%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -37%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$57 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$28 +111%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +185%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3m
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 25m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $61 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $224 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $112 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $122 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.76 · official $63.76 (match) · 109 history records