Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce2f…5cb9 crypto 1115 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,551 (+3%) realized +$2,551 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%593W / 523L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,531
weather 1% +$9
other 1% +$21
politics 0% −$318
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -30.5% -37.1% 33% 33% -42.8%
≤30d 341 -3.8% -13.0% 55% 55% -15.1%
≤90d 1116 -5.8% -14.8% 53% 53% -12.1%
all 1116 -5.8% -14.8% 53% 53% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 53% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 52% -20.5%
15% -30.4% 52% -28.2%
20% -37.2% 51% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$77 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,551
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses593 / 523
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1116 / 1115
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1116 Trades
no open positions (429 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $270 −$42 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$27 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $169 −$164 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$102 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $66 −$64 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$33 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$29 +71%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $208 −$2 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$28 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $74 +$50 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$64 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$61 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$66 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $74 +$45 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$43 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$67 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$34 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $74 +$52 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$41 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $158 +$99 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $82 +$58 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$42 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $206 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $270 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $169 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $105 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $66 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $208 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $41 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $25 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records