Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce31…5e39 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,843 (-3%) realized −$2,844 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate30%39W / 92L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$840per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$53
other 33% +$124
sports 14% −$2,901
world 3% −$12
culture 3% −$3
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -1.7% -11.1% 8% 0% -11.5%
all 131 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 9% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -11.9%
10% -19.0% 9% -20.3%
15% -26.8% 8% -28.0%
20% -34.0% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,198) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$37 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized−$2,844
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses39 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage156d
Avg bet$840
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $548 $549 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $315 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $409 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $257 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $294 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,357 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $261 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $818 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,099 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $742 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,039 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,922 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,691 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,273 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,096 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,395 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $3,306 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $987 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $868 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $870 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,552 −$4 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $360 −$2 -1%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,768 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $880 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 01 $488 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $172 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 01 $185 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $314 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $814 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $3,163 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,777 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $741 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $315 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $315 3h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $409 5h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $409 6h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 8h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $257 9h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $294 23h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $294 27h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $261 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $261 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $244 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $245 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $548 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $816 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $818 13d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $634 14d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $635 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $853 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $854 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $710 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $710 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $742 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $742 15d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $716 16d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $717 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $883 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.09 · official $549.09 (match) · 401 history records