Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce33…7e0a other 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 21% −$23
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$3
economics 6% −$4
world 5% +$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage130d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $441 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $493 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $405 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $172 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $899 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $342 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $164 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $282 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $318 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $421 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $212 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 19m
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 14h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 16h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 23h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 26h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 28h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 32h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 33h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 36h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 37h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 38h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 40h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 41h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 45h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 46h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.48 · official $49.48 (match) · 1346 history records