Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce36…2b99 crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$26,559 (+11%) realized +$26,559 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 58L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,896per market
Trades / day88.6pace
Fees−$5,530est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$11,478
crypto 22% −$38,895
other 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -51.9% -56.4% 18% 18% -77.3%
≤30d 12 -55.9% -60.1% 17% 17% -77.4%
≤90d 80 -23.3% -30.6% 28% 28% -29.4%
all 80 -23.3% -30.6% 28% 28% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 28% -29.4%
10% -37.3% 28% -36.1%
15% ← realistic here -43.3% 26% -42.3%
20% -48.9% 24% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$3,818) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
33.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,698 vs −$2,272 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26,559
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$5,530
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$2,896
Trades / day88.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $1,518 −$1,518 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $81 +$167 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $785 +$198 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $814 −$780 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $843 −$843 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $832 −$832 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $2,139 −$1,153 -54%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $1,946 −$1,722 -88%
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $975 −$24 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 29 $39 −$39 -100%
ITF Wuning: Meiling Wang vs Michika Ozeki May 26 $6 +$14 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 26 $2,223 −$2,150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $1,053 −$1,000 -95%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 25 $235 −$195 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 25 $626 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 25 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $469 +$230 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 25 $791 −$750 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 25 $2,096 −$2,000 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 25 $972 −$924 -95%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $459 −$450 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 24 $617 +$488 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $2,157 −$2,107 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $838 +$1,327 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 24 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 24 $422 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 24 $415 +$450 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 24 $1,243 −$848 -68%
ITF Takasaki: Yuki Naito vs Valentina Ryser May 24 $1,479 −$1,479 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $2,619 −$2,555 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $4,118 −$4,034 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $1,934 +$2,178 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 23 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 23 $630 −$263 -42%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 23 $820 −$820 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 23 $532 −$532 -100%
Cervia: Max Alcala Gurri vs Buvaysar Gadamauri May 23 $1,847 −$1,316 -71%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Ognjen Milic May 23 $2,107 +$866 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 23 $796 −$796 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $973 −$973 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 23 $2,077 −$2,077 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 23 $2,911 −$2,911 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 23 $3,807 −$3,807 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 23 $6,186 −$4,691 -76%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 23 $3,280 −$3,280 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 23 $8,142 +$5,129 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $18 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $23 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $13 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $14 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $20 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records