Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce38…0fd1 crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+0%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%150W / 9L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$77
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 25 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.3%
all 159 +0.3% -9.2% 94% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.23 per $1 lost it wins $5.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses150 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage280d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $230 $230 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 29 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 23 $233 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $232 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $231 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $230 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $226 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $226 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 28 $225 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 20 $224 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $224 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $223 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $222 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $221 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $220 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $219 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $217 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $217 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $216 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $215 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 31 $214 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 31 $213 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $212 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $212 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $211 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $210 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $156 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $209 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $209 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $208 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $208 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $207 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $206 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $206 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 27 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $204 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $203 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $199 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $198 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 16 $197 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $230 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $231 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $230 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $230 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $233 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $232 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $231 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $230 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $229 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $230 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $229 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $226 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $226 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $226 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $225 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $224 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $224 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $223 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $222 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $222 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $221 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $220 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $220 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $220 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $219 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $217 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $217 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $216 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $216 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.77 · official $229.77 (match) · 337 history records