Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce38…211a other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-15%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$19
sports 20% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -31.1% -37.6% 50% 50% -28.7%
≤30d 10 -33.7% -40.0% 50% 50% -40.2%
≤90d 10 -33.7% -40.0% 50% 50% -40.2%
all 10 -33.7% -40.0% 50% 50% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 50% -40.2%
10% -45.7% 30% -45.9%
15% -51.0% 20% -51.1%
20% -55.8% 10% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage17d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +61%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 $0 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$4 +29%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 $0 +19%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.98 · official $83.98 (match) · 17 history records