Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce3b…0b8f weather 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$374 (-5%) realized −$426 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate82%64W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$427
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$528
crypto 15% +$128
other 9% −$51
finance 4% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.5% -16.3% 75% 30% -10.0%
≤30d 78 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 35% -14.6%
≤90d 78 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 35% -14.6%
all 78 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 35% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 35% -14.6%
10% -20.0% 13% -22.8%
15% -27.7% 5% -30.2%
20% -34.8% 4% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$72 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$426
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses64 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage18d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Up 94¢ 93¢ $364 $359 −$5 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Up 96¢ 96¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $77 +$9 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $180 +$20 +11%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $224 +$8 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $210 +$40 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $57 +$9 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 10 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $305 +$9 +3%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$26 -52%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$10 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $96 −$92 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $0 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $165 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $278 +$22 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +5%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $45 −$8 -18%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $487 +$109 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $721 −$639 -89%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 07 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $90 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $85 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $45 −$26 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $94 +$16 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 04 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3? Jun 03 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 03 $65 +$16 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 2? Jun 03 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $580 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $90 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $142 +$14 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $95 24m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $269 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $106 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 90¢ $77 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 90¢ $9 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 90¢ $9 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 90¢ $22 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 90¢ $180 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 59¢ $232 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 77¢ $16 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 77¢ $4 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 77¢ $4 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 77¢ $4 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 77¢ $4 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 77¢ $46 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 48¢ $49 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 48¢ $98 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 93¢ $93 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? BUY No 83¢ $42 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? BUY No 83¢ $168 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 25¢ $24 5d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 50¢ $46 5d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 50¢ $4 5d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 35¢ $10 5d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 67¢ $20 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 95¢ $19 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 95¢ $19 5d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 53¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.13 · official $464.13 (match) · 283 history records