Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce3e…7fbf crypto 43 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-5%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%25W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day130.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$12
sports 13% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -8.3% -17.0% 58% 37% -15.4%
≤30d 43 -8.3% -17.0% 58% 37% -15.4%
≤90d 43 -8.3% -17.0% 58% 37% -15.4%
all 43 -8.3% -17.0% 58% 37% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 37% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 23% -23.5%
15% -32.2% 7% -30.9%
20% -38.9% 2% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses25 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day130.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 −$24 -80%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$25 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$29 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$15 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$7 -69%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$9 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $6 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records