Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce40…cc4f
crypto · 446 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$345 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$350 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$350
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses279 / 166
Open positions1
Markets (closed)445 / 446
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day227.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 445 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$361
7 days−$1,993
14 days−$350
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$304 +721%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$14 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$114 +2741%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$350
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 342 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 39% -42.4%
≤30d 445 +13.4% +2.6% 63% 46% -14.6%
≤90d 445 +13.4% +2.6% 63% 46% -14.6%
all 445 +13.4% +2.6% 63% 46% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover227.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 46% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.2% 34% -22.7%
15% -16.2% 28% -30.2%
20% -24.4% 23% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.95 · official $54.95 (match) · 3500 history records