Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce42…e9ad politics 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 67L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$9
other 29% −$5
economics 13% −$2
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 68 -0.5% -10.0% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage637d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $52 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $53 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 08 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Feb 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Everton be relegated? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Election certified on January 6? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
U.S. Recession in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win the NFC North? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will another team win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Bailey be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Braga win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Seas Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Kansas State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? Nov 25 $0 $0 -4%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 30d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 30d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 41d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 42d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 49d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 49d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 55d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 56d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 70d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 71d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 76d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 76d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 79d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 80d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 88d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 88d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 97d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4 98d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 98d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 102d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 102d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 103d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 104d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $53 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records