Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CE 0xce49…fbda other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,619 (-12%) realized −$2,616 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 48L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$169
14 days+$169
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1,923
politics 29% −$509
crypto 7% +$457
economics 3% −$653
other 2% −$5
sports 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 21% 21% +26.3%
≤30d 29 +2.0% -7.7% 24% 21% +18.6%
≤90d 31 +3.8% -6.1% 29% 23% +2.2%
all 64 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 19% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 19% -22.1%
10% -38.2% 19% -29.6%
15% -44.2% 16% -36.4%
20% -49.7% 14% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -50% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$103 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$2,616
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)64 / 71
History coverage165d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$18 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $92 −$54 -59%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$20 +384%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $26 −$5 -21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$72 +354%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$21 -68%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +784%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$5 -18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$243 +474%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $150 +$10 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 27 $95 +$54 +57%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $1,501 +$47 +3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $4,167 −$1,774 -43%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 07 $1 −$1 -85%
Trump out as President before 2027? Mar 05 $899 −$75 -8%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $3,102 +$76 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 18 $100 +$26 +26%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 01 $500 +$155 +31%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 28 $200 +$19 +9%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jan 28 $497 −$497 -100%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $140 −$140 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $499 −$499 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $1,000 −$353 -35%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 19 $1,750 −$387 -22%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jan 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jan 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $2 +$3 +212%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17 Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 9¢ $38 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 33h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.80 · official $28.80 (match) · 218 history records