Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce4b…6e08 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$866 (-10%) realized −$914 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,994
14 days−$919
30 days−$919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$3,418
other 24% +$2,547
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 17 -36.5% -42.6% 24% 24% -19.2%
≤90d 17 -36.5% -42.6% 24% 24% -19.2%
all 17 -36.5% -42.6% 24% 24% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.6% 24% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.1% 24% -26.9%
15% -53.1% 24% -34.0%
20% -57.7% 24% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,188 vs −$436 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$914
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $48 $95 +$48 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $495 −$495 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,920 −$1,905 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $494 −$494 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $880 +$1,164 +132%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $700 −$700 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $415 +$555 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,212 +$2,201 +182%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $326 −$283 -87%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $225 −$215 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $390 +$833 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $48 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $500 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $301 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $67 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $40 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $85 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $495 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $18 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $181 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $529 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $207 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.25 · official $95.25 (match) · 101 history records