Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce4b…bb90 weather 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$155 (-1%) realized −$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate87%178W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$7
14 days−$49
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$197
crypto 17% +$20
world 2% −$1
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% +$1
other 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.5% -24.5% 57% 14% -7.3%
≤30d 33 -3.2% -12.4% 88% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 140 -2.7% -12.0% 88% 4% -11.1%
all 205 -2.6% -11.9% 87% 9% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 9% -10.7%
10% -20.3% 4% -19.3%
15% -28.0% 1% -27.1%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses178 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)205 / 207
History coverage144d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $89 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $88 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $170 −$82 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $169 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $158 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $153 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $144 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $140 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $138 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $136 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $128 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $122 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $111 +$4 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $108 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 28? May 28 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $100 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23? May 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 18? May 20 $102 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $88 +$4 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15? May 15 $88 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $83 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13? May 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 12? May 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11? May 11 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 10? May 10 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $106 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $95 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $89 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $89 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $88 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $89 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $88 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 44¢ $45 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 61¢ $43 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $170 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $171 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $169 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $168 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $158 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $159 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $153 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $152 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $151 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $151 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $144 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $145 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $144 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $143 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $140 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $141 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.47 · official $107.47 (match) · 539 history records