Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce4e…c56f other 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$11 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%62W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$558
crypto 22% −$331
economics 16% −$126
sports 5% −$99
world 3% +$119
tech 2% −$51
politics 1% −$92
culture 1% −$55
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.2% -12.4% 38% 38% -17.4%
≤30d 8 -3.2% -12.4% 38% 38% -17.4%
≤90d 90 -37.3% -43.3% 26% 24% -47.2%
all 189 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 29% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 29% -10.3%
10% -34.9% 21% -18.9%
15% -41.2% 14% -26.7%
20% -46.9% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$20 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses62 / 127
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)189 / 195
History coverage560d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $33 $27 −$5 (-17%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 64¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $45 +$12 +27%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $30 −$17 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 25 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 25 $41 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 25 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 25 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 14 $43 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 14 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 14 $45 −$13 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 14 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 14 $50 −$35 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 08 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 08 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 08 $75 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 08 $30 +$13 +45%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 01 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 01 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 01 $35 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 01 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 01 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 01 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 01 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 01 $25 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Singapo Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Apr 01 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 01 $20 −$4 -20%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Apr 01 $10 +$5 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 22h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 22h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 6¢ $29 22h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 64¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 6d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 6d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 6d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.49 · official $130.64 (match) · 762 history records