Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce4f…20fc crypto 362 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$331 (+9%) realized +$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%188W / 174L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$93
14 days−$95
30 days+$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -16.9% -24.8% 51% 41% -15.3%
≤30d 350 -10.2% -18.8% 53% 41% -0.3%
≤90d 357 -11.1% -19.6% 52% 40% -0.7%
all 362 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 40% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 40% -1.9%
10% -27.7% 33% -11.3%
15% -34.7% 23% -19.9%
20% -41.1% 18% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses188 / 174
Open positions0
Markets (closed)362 / 362
History coverage195d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 362 Trades
no open positions (122 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $88 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $46 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $43 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$24 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $39 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $33 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $70 +$17 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $44 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$10 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$9 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$9 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$9 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$31 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1254 history records