Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xce50…2d09 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$7
other 24% +$1
politics 6% +$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% −$2
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 11 +171.8% +145.9% 36% 9% -8.2%
≤90d 11 +171.8% +145.9% 36% 9% -8.2%
all 32 +56.6% +41.7% 53% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.7% 6% -8.7%
10% +28.1% 3% -17.5%
15% +15.8% 3% -25.4%
20% +4.4% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +113% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage470d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 76¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $87 +$5 +5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $56 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $88 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $23 +$4 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 $0 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 −$1 -16%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 17 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 07 $19 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $4 $0 +14%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $23 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $13 $0 -1%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $12 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $13 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $27 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $7 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $43 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $46 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $9 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $32 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $32 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $9 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $42 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $43 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $20 35h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $36 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $9 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $33 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $25 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $17 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $46 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $46 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.42 · official $39.02 (match) · 106 history records