Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce51…8d4c politics 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%50W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$5
other 26% −$2
world 9% −$19
crypto 8% +$2
sports 7% −$1
weather 3% −$7
economics 3% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 17 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 156 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -10.6%
all 205 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -10.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses50 / 155
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage111d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 28 $17 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 30? Jun 28 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 30? Jun 28 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 28 $46 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30? Jun 28 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 29? Jun 28 $44 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 28 $29 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $57 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 28 $25 $0 -1%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 26 $202 −$18 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $58 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 26 $17 $0 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 26 $11 −$1 -5%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $20 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in SELL Yes 88¢ $16 26m
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in BUY Yes 88¢ $17 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 40¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 42¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 29? SELL Yes 37¢ $41 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $44 4h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 5h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 5h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5 5h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $5 5h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $9 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 75¢ $7 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $9 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 5d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $9 8d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $5 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1060 history records